How far can the Crude Oil 'rally' go?
On February 11, WTI US crude oil, Brent crude oil and SC crude oil all showed an upward trend. Macro-analysis factors are as follows:
Geopolitical situation: The ongoing escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, frequent attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea region, disruption of oil transport and threats to supply may push up oil prices. On the other hand, although the US sanctions on Iran have limited Iranian oil exports, the situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries have said that they will adjust their production according to market conditions, reducing the market's concern about oil supply shortage.
Economic recovery: The global economy is recovering, manufacturing is humming, factories are operating at higher rates, and demand for oil is surging in areas ranging from car manufacturing to electronics. The transportation industry is increasingly busy with frequent trade exchanges, and the demand for oil as a power fuel for roads, railways, and sea transportation is also rising, and strong demand has become an important driving force for the rise in oil prices.
Crude oil inventory: many major crude oil inventory centers in the world are lower than expected on average, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States fell to the lowest level in recent years, and the crude oil inventory in some countries in Europe is even lower than the safety warning line, and the inventory emergency makes the market supply tight and supports oil prices.
Monetary policy: In the context of the global economic recovery, some countries and regions have implemented loose monetary policies, and a large amount of money has flowed into the market, triggering inflation expectations. In order to maintain and increase the value of assets, investors have turned their attention to crude oil and other commodities, and a large amount of money has poured into the crude oil market, pushing up the price of crude oil futures.
Trade situation: As the escalation of the tariff dispute in the United States may hit energy-intensive industries, increasing the uncertainty of the oil demand outlook and affecting the direction of crude oil prices.
Short-term trend: On February 11, U.S. crude oil prices traded near $72.3 / barrel, above short-term attention to $73.5-74.0 a line of resistance, below short-term attention to $71.5-71.0 a line of support, if it falls below $71, it is feared to further accelerate the decline.