The higher the oil price, the higher the dollar?
Foreign media news on September 9; The dollar index rose for the eighth straight week, with analysts believing higher crude prices would further boost prospects for the dollar.
This week, the dollar index rose to a six-month high, up about 5.5% from its July low. The correlation between the dollar and oil prices reached its highest level in nine months.
Earlier, Saudi media reported that Saudi Arabia would extend production cuts for three months, a move that exceeded the one-month extension previously expected by the market; At the same time, Russia also continues to respond to Saudi Arabia, cutting production until the end of this year.
Affected by this news, Brent crude oil exceeded $90/barrel for the first time this year since November last year, and WTI crude oil exceeded $85.
Analysts believe the dollar will extend its longest weekly rally on record as the prospect of higher crude prices boosts the world's largest economy.
They point out that U.S. exports more oil and gas than it imports, so higher energy costs would benefit the dollar but could weaken the euro and yen, both of which are major energy importers.
Kenneth Broux, strategist at Societe Generale, said:
Oil prices pose a challenge for the euro and yen to reverse their weakness.
In this case, you will not sell dollars.
The surge in oil prices comes at a time when eurozone growth is not improving. The preliminary GDP in the second quarter was only 0.5% year-on-year, which was less than expected, and the Harmonized CPI increased by 5.3% year-on-year in August, which was higher than expected, indicating stubborn inflation, raising market concerns about stagflation, and the euro has not performed well in recent times.
According to the International Energy Agency, the U.S. energy trade balance last year was 510.2 kilotons of oil equivalent, while Europe's trade deficit was 502788 kilotons of oil equivalent, and analysts believe that this difference may widen if oil prices rise further.
Timothy Graf, head of macro strategy at State Street EMEA, commented on the impact of higher oil prices on the economy:
Europe has entered the danger zone, and Japan is also approaching the danger zone.
Crude oil prices only began to weaken the U.S. economy at around $120 a barrel. U.S. inflation expectations don't look in any danger of getting off anchor.