China's economic outlook in 2025: deep repair at both ends of supply and demand, and balanced economic development is expected
The annual forum of the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) has released a major report detailing the development trend of the Chinese economy in 2025. The report pointed out that with the continuous improvement of policy adjustment and market environment, China's economy will achieve deep repair at both ends of supply and demand, and gradually move toward a balanced state, laying a solid foundation for future economic development.
On the supply side, China's economy will usher in a series of positive changes. The tertiary industry, especially the real estate industry, which has been challenged for a long time, will significantly reduce its drag. With the policy adjustment and the improvement of the market environment, the real estate industry is expected to achieve deep repair, and the growth rate of its added value is expected to return to more than 5%, the specific forecast is 5.1%. The forecast suggests that the property sector could emerge from the downturn in the coming year and re-emerge as an important support for economic growth.
At the same time, the secondary industry will also show a trend of falling back to the normal level. Despite the slowdown, the value-added growth of the secondary industry will still reach 4.5 percent, showing its solid position in the Chinese economy. This growth rate reflects the achievements of industrial upgrading and structural adjustment, as well as the resilience and adaptability of the Chinese economy in the face of external challenges.
On the demand side, the report also offers optimistic forecasts. As infrastructure investment accelerates and the decline in real estate investment Narrows, fixed asset investment will stabilize and recover. Investment growth is expected to reach 4.5% in 2025, providing strong support for economic growth. The forecast indicates that the government's investment in infrastructure construction will continue to increase, while the real estate market will gradually emerge from the trough, contributing new impetus to economic growth.
In addition, the report also highlighted the importance of consumption for economic growth. In 2025, consumption support policies need to be strengthened to stimulate consumers' willingness and ability to buy through measures such as relaxing consumption controls and providing inclusive consumption subsidies. It is expected that driven by this series of policies, consumption growth is expected to rise to 5%, becoming an important force driving economic growth.