Recently, Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), Japan's largest nickel producer, made a detailed forecast for the future trend of the global nickel market in its semi-annual market outlook report, pointing out that the global nickel market is expected to face greater oversupply pressure next year, driven by Indonesia's continued production increase.

As a major producer of nickel in the world, Indonesia plays an important role in the nickel market. Indonesia's production of low-grade nickel pig iron is expected to increase by 11.3% next year to 1.67 million mt, SMM mentioned in the report. This significant increase will directly lead to the oversupply of the global nickel market expanding from 86,000 tons this year to 104,000 tons, exacerbating the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

It is worth noting that Indonesia's production of high-grade nickel pig iron is expected to show an upward trend not only in its low-grade nickel pig iron production, but also in Indonesia. This trend will undoubtedly further exacerbate the oversupply situation in the global nickel market, putting pressure on nickel prices.

SMM remains optimistic about the long-term demand in the nickel market, despite the fact that the oversupply situation is expected to persist. The report predicts that global nickel demand will increase by 7.1% to 3.55 million tonnes by 2025. This growth is mainly due to the rapid development of stainless steel, alloy steel and battery industries, which continue to grow in demand for nickel, providing some support for the nickel market.

But at the same time, supply will climb 7.4% to 3.65 million tonnes. This means that despite the increase in demand, the oversupply situation will persist for some time to come. This supply-demand imbalance will exert some downward pressure on nickel prices, and investors and related companies need to pay close attention to market dynamics in order to adjust investment strategies and production plans in a timely manner.

In addition, SMM CEO Yusuke Niwa specifically pointed out in the report that the supply and demand of secondary nickel are expected to remain roughly balanced next year, although the increase in the supply of nickel pig iron in Indonesia will exacerbate the oversupply situation in the market. This forecast provides some stability for the nickel market, but overall, the pressure of oversupply cannot be ignored.

As an important industrial raw material, nickel has a wide range of applications in stainless steel, alloy steel, batteries and other fields. Therefore, changes in supply and demand in the global nickel market will have a profound impact on related industries. SMM's forecasts remind investors and related companies of the need to pay close attention to market dynamics and strengthen risk management to cope with possible market volatility.